Published November 1, 2026 in Market Update

Some parts of the outside areas are moving fast and bidding up

By Spencer Hsu

Real estate, Outside areas

Here is the one thing that changes what you should do right now. In 94579 San Leandro, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 65.5% of homes selling above list price in the three months ending August 31, 2026. In 94546 Castro Valley, that share was 62.2%. Those are not outliers. They are the lead story. Your pricing strategy matters more than the rate.

That said, CNBC reported the average contract rate for 30-year fixed mortgages at 7.37% as of late October. Buyers are stretching. When they still bid over list at those rates, it tells you something real about how little supply there is.

The two areas leading the bidding

94579 San Leandro moved the fastest of any ZIP in this market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded a median of just 12 days on market. Nearly two in three homes sold above list. The average sale came in at 105.1% of asking. And 62.5% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 30.5 points from the same period a year before. That last number is the one I keep coming back to.

Castro Valley told a similar story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 94546 averaging 104% of list price on sales. Homes sat for a median of 15 days. Supply fell to 1.8 months. Prices rose 9.7% from the same three months a year before. Fewer listings came to market, down 24.4%, and buyers competed hard for what was there.

Not every ZIP reads the same way

Step over to 94506 Danville and the picture changes. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 25.3% of homes selling above list there in the same period. The average sale came in at 98.3% of list. Homes took a median of 31 days to sell, 9 days longer than a year before. More inventory arrived too, up 34%. That is a different conversation entirely.

94542 Hayward is another one worth watching. Prices rose 10.1% year over year according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. But the share of homes going under contract within two weeks fell 22.2 points. Fewer homes sold. Supply climbed. The price headline and the speed headline point in opposite directions. That is exactly the kind of nuance that matters when you are picking a number.

What rates are doing to buyers right now

CNBC reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.37% as of late October. Redfin put the weekly average at 7.32%, down slightly from 7.4% the week before. The typical buyer's monthly payment has climbed to $2,786, up 10.7% from a year ago, according to Redfin. Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings took a price cut in September 2026. That share is up 0.9 points year over year.

Here is what makes this market interesting. Buyers in places like 94579 and 94546 are bidding over list anyway. That tells you demand is real and supply is tight. In other parts of these outside areas, sellers are adjusting. Both things are true at once.

A few more ZIPs worth knowing

94550 Livermore is one I watch closely. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 45.9% of homes going under contract within two weeks, up 11.5 points from a year before. Median days on market fell to 18. Prices nudged up 1.4%. Supply is only 2 months. Buyers are moving fast there even though the above-list share, at 35%, is more modest.

94507 Alamo sits at the other end of the price range. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price at $3,000,000, up 20.7% year over year. Homes sold in a median of 21 days, 6 days faster than a year before. The average sale came in at 101.9% of list. Only 1.4 months of supply. That is a thin market at a high price point.

The South Bay side of the story

Morgan Hill and Gilroy are active but measured. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 133 homes sold in 95037 Morgan Hill, up 8.1% from a year before. The above-list share rose 10.3 points to 43.6%. Prices dipped a little, down 1.1%. In 95020 Gilroy, 113 homes sold, up 7.6%. Prices there slipped 5.6%. More homes are selling, but at slightly lower prices. That is a real admission worth sitting with.

95139 San Jose is the small-sample story. Only 10 homes sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. The median price jumped 41.4% year over year. With that few sales, one or two homes can move a number like that. The 101.3% average sale-to-list and 50% above-list share are more reliable signals.

One more thing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator has no numbers for 95141. If your home sits in that part of the market, the picture here comes from the website data alone, not from local sales counts.